In the last offering in
these pages [1],
your humble servant proposed an alternative method for awarding electoral votes
in a presidential election. So as not to burden you with the necessity of referring
back to the previous post, I’ll lay out the method here:
(1) Electors will be
replaced with electoral votes, dispensing with the need for rubber stamp party
apparatchiks to fill the role;
(2) Award electoral votes
proportionately, according to the percentage of votes received, except as
provided for in item (3), and
(3) Any candidate
receiving more than 50 percent of a state’s popular vote would receive two
electoral votes to represent the state’s Senate representation, with the rest
being allocated according to percentage.
Now after I presented the
idea, I found myself brimming over with curiosity as to how this system would
have worked out in the 2016 election, so I made the calculation. The results
are set forth below.
As you can see, Donald Trump
still would have won the election, but just barely. 270 electoral votes are
needed to win, and Trump would have received 271 under the proposed system.
I got the figures from
Politico [2],
and rounded the percentages to the nearest one hundredth. Rounding in some
cases resulted in the total percentages for a state being either 99% or 101%.
To determine the number of electoral votes a candidate received in states where
no candidate won a majority, I multiplied the possible number of electoral
votes by the percentage of votes received by the candidate, using standard
arithmetical rounding. If a candidate received a majority in a state, I awarded
him or her two electoral votes, then followed the same procedure as before
except that I multiplied the percentage by the remaining electoral votes.
For each state, I started
with the candidate who received the most votes and worked down. Once I used up
all the electoral votes for a state I stopped, even if there was a candidate
remaining who otherwise had enough votes to receive an electoral vote, since a
state cannot award more electoral votes than it has. If there was an electoral
vote left over, a situation created by a number of vanity candidates who
themselves did not do well enough to receive any electoral votes, but who
together collected enough votes to receive one, I awarded the left over vote to
the candidate who received the most votes.
Whatever unfairness is
perceived in this method, I can only submit that it is far fairer than a
candidate receiving all of a state’s electoral votes even if he or she didn’t
win a majority of the state’s popular vote. If we are looking for a system
where the winner of the entire nation’s popular vote will always be the
prevailing candidate, then we should simply go to a popular vote and be done
with it.
Now one correspondent has
opined that with the system I have proposed there will more likely be
situations where no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, and that,
therefore, I have been hasty in dispensing with human electors. The idea is
that the electors will now have more of a real function in such situations,
since they will have negotiating power. The electors for third party candidates
who actually receive electoral votes will be able to auction their votes to the
top candidates in return for concessions.
But it seems that
function should go to the candidates themselves. In the hypothetical scenario
under discussion, Gary Johnson received 11 electoral votes. Had Evan McMullin
or Jill Stein done better, they might have deprived any candidate from getting
a majority. That would have put them in a position to award their electoral
votes to either Trump or Clinton in exchange for certain policy promises. This
would require a constitutional amendment, of course, because as of now such
elections go to the House of Representatives for determination. And one thing
that can be said for the present system is that it serves as a preventative for
that eventuality.
It is to be admitted that
I have, by this proposal, increased the risk that the President will be elected
by the House of Representatives, unless other provisions are made for dealing
with the situation where no candidate receives a majority, such as a run-off
election. But the same objection can be made to a nationwide popular vote,
unless its advocates propose that the winner of a mere plurality should attain
the presidency.
And this should bring to
our attention a few other necessary reforms, like increasing the number of
representatives—and, consequently, the total number of electoral votes—which
has remained the same, except for a brief interlude, since the early part of
the last century. It is also past time that we took a serious look at how
political parties have distorted the system as it was originally intended. But,
for now, let us rest content in the knowledge that a more rational method for
distributing electoral votes is available in the event that our politicians
decide to embrace rationality.
Alabama
Electoral Votes: 9
D. Trump 63%
1,306,925 6
H. Clinton 35%
718,084 3
G. Johnson 2%
43,869
J. Stein 0% 9,287
Alaska
Electoral Votes: 3
D. Trump 53% 130,415 3
H. Clinton 38% 93,007
G. Johnson 6% 14,593
J. Stein 2% 4,445
D. Castle 1% 3,156
De La Fuente 0% 972
Arizona
Electoral Votes: 11
D. Trump 50%
1,021,154 6
H. Clinton 45%
936,250 5
G. Johnson 4%
80,151
J. Stein 1%
25,255
Arkansas
Electoral Votes: 6
D. Trump 60%
677,904 5
H. Clinton 34%
378,729 1
G. Johnson 3%
29,518
E. McMullin 1% 13,069
J. Stein 1%
9,837
D. Castle 0%
4,567
J. Hedges 0%
4,676
L. Kahn 0%
3,384
California
Electoral Votes: 55
H. Clinton 62%
7,362,490 35
D. Trump 33%
3,916,209 18
G. Johnson 3%
402,406 2
J. Stein 2%
220,312
G. La Riva 0%
52,900
Colorado
Electoral Votes: 9
H. Clinton 47%
1,208,095 4
D. Trump 44%
1,136,354 4
G. Johnson 5%
129,128 1
J. Stein 1%
33,009
E. McMullin 1% 26,715
D. Castle 0%
10,883
C. Keniston 0%
4,732
M. Smith 0%
1,661
F. Atwood 0%
309
De La Fuente 0% 1,061
J. Hedges 0%
163
T. Hoefling 0%
639
A. Kennedy 0%
409
K. Kopitke 0%
1,001
L. Kotlikoff 0%
359
G. La Riva 0%
445
B. Lyttle 0%
336
J. Maldonado 0% 780
M. Maturen 0%
752
R. Scott 0%
687
R. Silva 0%
652
E. Soltysik 0%
235
Connecticut
Electoral Votes: 7
H. Clinton 55%
884,432 5
D. Trump 41%
668,266 2
G. Johnson 3%
48,051
J. Stein 1%
22,793
Delaware
Electoral Votes: 3
H. Clinton 53%
235,581 3
D. Trump 41%
185,103
G. Johnson 3%
14,751
J. Stein 1%
6,100
District of Columbia
Electoral Votes: 3
H. Clinton 93%
260,223 3
D. Trump 4%
11,553
G. Johnson 2%
4,501
J. Stein 1%
3,995
Florida
Electoral Votes: 29
D. Trump 49%
4,605,515 14
H. Clinton 48%
4,485,745 14
G. Johnson 2%
206,007 1
J. Stein 1%
64,019
D. Castle 0%
16,393
De La Fuente 0% 9,071
Georgia
Electoral Votes: 16
D. Trump 51%
2,068,623 10
H. Clinton 46%
1,837,300 6
G. Johnson 3%
123,641
Hawaii
Electoral Votes: 4
H. Clinton 62%
251,853 3
D. Trump 30%
121,648 1
G. Johnson 4%
14,854
J. Stein 3%
11,608
D. Castle 1%
4,191
Idaho
Electoral Votes: 4
D. Trump 59%
407,199 3
H. Clinton 28%
189,677 1
E. McMullin 7% 46,538
G. Johnson 4%
28,256
J. Stein 1%
8,464
D. Castle 1%
4,378
S. Copeland 0%
2,347
De La Fuente 0% 1,376
Illinois
Electoral Votes: 20
H. Clinton 55%
2,977,498 12
D. Trump 39%
2,118,179 7
G. Johnson 4%
204,491 1
J. Stein 1%
74,112
Indiana
Electoral Votes: 11
D. Trump 57%
1,556,220 7
H. Clinton 38%
1,031,953 3
G. Johnson 5%
133,856 1
Iowa
Electoral Votes: 6
D. Trump 52%
798,923 4
H. Clinton 42%
650,790 2
G. Johnson 4%
57,322
E. McMullin 1% 12,267
J. Stein 1%
11,119
D. Castle 1%
7,252
L. Kahn 0%
2,181
D. Vacek 0%
2,256
De La Fuente 0% 450
G. La Riva 0%
320
Kansas
Electoral Votes: 6
D. Trump 57%
656,009 5
H. Clinton 36%
414,788 1
G. Johnson 5%
53,648
J. Stein 2%
22,698
Kentucky
Electoral Votes: 8
D. Trump 63%
1,202,942 6
H. Clinton 33%
628,834 2
G. Johnson 3%
53,749
E. McMullin 1% 22,780
J. Stein 1%
13,913
De La Fuente 0% 1,128
Louisiana
Electoral Votes: 8
D. Trump 58%
1,178,004 6
H. Clinton 38%
779,535 2
G. Johnson 2%
37,950
J. Stein 1%
14,018
E. McMullin 0% 8,546
D. Castle 0%
3,128
L. Kotlikoff 0%
1,046
T. Hoefling 0%
1,581
C. Keniston 0%
1,880
A. Kennedy 0%
480
G. La Riva 0%
446
J. White 0%
369
P. Jacob 0%
748
Maine
Electoral Votes: 4
H. Clinton 48%
354,873 2
D. Trump 45%
334,838 2
G. Johnson 5%
37,764
J. Stein 2%
14,075
Maryland
Electoral Votes: 10
H. Clinton 61%
1,497,951 7
D. Trump 35%
873,646 3
G. Johnson 3%
71,107
J. Stein 1%
31,839
Massachusetts
Electoral Votes: 11
H. Clinton 61%
1,964,768 8
D. Trump 34%
1,083,069 3
G. Johnson 4%
136,784
J. Stein 2%
46,910
Michigan
Electoral Votes: 16
D. Trump 48%
2,279,805 8
H. Clinton 47%
2,268,193 8
G. Johnson 4%
173,057
J. Stein 1%
50,700
D. Castle 0%
16,926
E. Soltysik 0%
2,236
Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10
H. Clinton 47%
1,366,676 5
D. Trump 45%
1,322,891 5
G. Johnson 4%
112,944
E. McMullin 2% 53,080
J. Stein 1%
36,957
D. Vacek 0%
11,290
D. Castle 0%
9,466
A. Kennedy 0%
1,670
De La Fuente 0% 1,430
Mississippi
Electoral Votes: 6
D. Trump 58%
678,457 4
H. Clinton 40%
462,001 2
G. Johnson 1%
13,789
J. Stein 0%
3,580
D. Castle 0%
3,878
De La Fuente 0% 596
J. Hedges 0%
686
Missouri
Electoral Votes: 10
D. Trump 57%
1,585,753 7
H. Clinton 38%
1,054,889 3
G. Johnson 4%
96,404
J. Stein 1%
25,086
D. Castle 1%
12,966
Montana
Electoral Votes: 3
D. Trump 57%
274,120 3
H. Clinton 36%
174,521
G. Johnson 6%
27,264
J. Stein 2%
7,669
De La Fuente 0% 1,535
Nebraska
Electoral Votes: 5
D. Trump 60%
485,819 4
H. Clinton 34%
273,858 1
G. Johnson 5%
37,615
J. Stein 1%
8,346
Nevada
Electoral Votes: 6
H. Clinton 48%
537,753 3
D. Trump 46%
511,319 3
G. Johnson 3%
37,299
None 3%
28,824
D. Castle 1%
5,254
De La Fuente 0% 2,541
New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4
H. Clinton 48%
348,521 2
D. Trump 47%
345,789 2
G. Johnson 4%
30,827
J. Stein 1%
6,416
De La Fuente 0% 676
New Jersey
Electoral Votes: 14
H. Clinton 55%
2,021,756 9
D. Trump 42%
1,535,513 5
G. Johnson 2%
68,695
J. Stein 1%
35,949
D. Castle 0%
5,830
A. Kennedy 0%
2,090
De La Fuente 0% 1,765
G. La Riva 0%
1,613
Moorehead 0%
1,682
New Mexico
Electoral Votes: 5
H. Clinton 48%
380,724 2
D. Trump 40%
315,875 2
G. Johnson 9%
73,669 1
J. Stein 1%
9,729
E. McMullin 1% 5,714
D. Castle 0%
1,490
G. La Riva 0%
1,174
De La Fuente 0% 466
New York
Electoral Votes: 29
H. Clinton 59%
4,143,874 18
D. Trump 38%
2,640,570 10
G. Johnson 2%
161,836 1
J. Stein 1%
99,895
North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
D. Trump 51%
2,339,603 9
H. Clinton 47%
2,162,074 6
G. Johnson 3%
127,794
North Dakota
Electoral Votes: 3
D. Trump 64%
216,133 3
H. Clinton 28%
93,526
G. Johnson 6%
21,351
J. Stein 1%
3,769
D. Castle 1%
1,825
De La Fuente 0% 364
Ohio
Electoral Votes: 18
D. Trump 52%
2,771,984 10
H. Clinton 44%
2,317,001 7
G. Johnson 3%
168,599 1
J. Stein 1%
44,310
R. Duncan 0%
23,501
Oklahoma
Electoral Votes: 7
D. Trump 65%
947,934 5
H. Clinton 29%
419,788 2
G. Johnson 6%
83,334
Oregon
Electoral Votes: 7
H. Clinton 52%
934,631 5
D. Trump 41%
742,506 2
G. Johnson 5%
86,306
J. Stein 3%
45,132
Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 20
D. Trump 49%
2,912,941 10
H. Clinton 48%
2,844,705 10
G. Johnson 2%
142,653
J. Stein 1%
48,912
D. Castle 0%
20,896
Rhode Island
Electoral Votes: 4
H. Clinton 55%
249,902 3
D. Trump 40%
179,421 1
G. Johnson 3%
14,643
J. Stein 1%
6,155
De La Fuente 0% 666
South Carolina
Electoral Votes: 9
D. Trump 55%
1,143,611 6
H. Clinton 41%
849,469 3
G. Johnson 2%
48,715
E. McMullin 1% 20,795
J. Stein 1%
12,917
D. Castle 0%
5,716
P. Skewes 0%
3,221
South Dakota
Electoral Votes: 3
D. Trump 62%
227,701 3
H. Clinton 32%
117,442
G. Johnson 6%
20,845
D. Castle 1%
4,059
Tennessee
Electoral Votes: 11
D. Trump 61%
1,517,402 8
H. Clinton 35%
867,110 3
G. Johnson 3%
70,084
J. Stein 1% 15,919
M. Smith 0%
7,244
De La Fuente 0% 4,064
Kennedy 0%
2,868
Texas
Electoral Votes: 38
D. Trump 53%
4,681,590 21
H. Clinton 43%
3,867,816 16
G. Johnson 3%
282,524 1
J. Stein 1%
71,307
Utah
Electoral Votes: 6
D. Trump 46%
452,086 3
H. Clinton 28%
274,188 2
E. McMullin 21%
207,288 1
G. Johnson 3%
33,142
J. Stein 1%
7,695
D. Castle 1%
6,665
R. Giordani 0%
2,304
De La Fuente 0% 695
A. Kennedy 0%
443
Moorehead 0%
451
Vermont
Electoral Votes: 3
H. Clinton 61%
178,179 3
D. Trump 33%
95,053
G. Johnson 3%
10,047
J. Stein 2%
6,748
De La Fuente 0% 1,063
G. La Riva 0%
323
Virginia
Electoral Votes: 13
H. Clinton 50%
1,916,845 7
D. Trump 45%
1,731,156 6
G. Johnson 3%
116,600
E. McMullin 1% 52,914
J. Stein 1%
27,272
Washington
Electoral Votes: 12
H. Clinton 54%
1,610,524 7
D. Trump 38%
1,129,120 4
G. Johnson 5%
144,599 1
J. Stein 2%
51,066
D. Castle 1%
15,734
A. Kennedy 0%
3,860
G. La Riva 0%
3,039
West Virginia
Electoral Votes: 5
D. Trump 69%
486,198 4
H. Clinton 27%
187,457 1
G. Johnson 3%
22,798
J. Stein 1%
8,000
D. Castle 1%
3,773
Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
D. Trump 48%
1,409,467 5
H. Clinton 47%
1,382,210 5
G. Johnson 4%
106,442
J. Stein 1%
30,980
D. Castle 0%
12,179
De La Fuente 0% 1,561
Moorehead 0%
1,781
Wyoming
Electoral Votes: 3
D. Trump 70%
174,248 3
H. Clinton 23%
55,949
G. Johnson 5%
13,285
J. Stein 1%
2,512
D. Castle 1%
2,038
De La Fuente 0% 710
TOTALS:
D. Trump 271
H. Clinton 255
G. Johnson 11
E. McMullin 1
